Feeding a Fractured World: Why Food Security Starts With the Supply Chain 

 

Food affordability begins long before products reach the grocery store. On September 9, Meridian International Center convened Feeding a Fractured World: Global Supply Disruption and the Future of Food Affordability, a virtual discussion examining how geopolitical instability, fertilizer shortages and rising agricultural input costs are reshaping food security around the world. The conversation featured The Honorable Tom Vilsack, former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and Governor of Iowa; The Honorable Mark Pryor, former U.S. Senator from Arkansas and former Chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Agriculture; and Senator Abubakar Kyari, Minister of Agriculture and Food Security of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. 

Top Takeaways:

1. Food security is becoming a measure of global stability.

Food insecurity reaches far beyond agriculture, influencing public health, economic growth, climate resilience and conflict. “One could make a very strong case that by making the world a food-secure world and a nutrition-secure world, we would essentially have multiple results,” said former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack. Those results could include healthier populations, more resilient economies and more stable societies, underscoring why food security intersects with broader global challenges. 

2. Fertilizer has become a geopolitical vulnerability hiding in plain sight.

The fertilizer farmers rely on is connected to a web of global markets for sulfur, potash, phosphate, urea, energy and other inputs, meaning a disruption thousands of miles away can quickly reach farms and consumers. Former U.S. Senator Mark Pryor pointed to export restrictions, trade disputes and instability around major shipping routes as forces capable of constraining supply and increasing costs. These pressures make fertilizer supply chains extremely vulnerable to geopolitical decisions that farmers themselves have little ability to control.  

3. When input prices rise, farmers face an impossible equation.

Higher fertilizer costs force producers to either absorb the expense or use less, which can reduce yields and further squeeze already narrow margins. That dynamic ultimately extends beyond the farm: lower production and higher transportation and input costs can translate into higher food prices for consumers. The discussion underscored how farmers in Arkansas, Iowa, Nigeria and elsewhere are confronting many of the same global pressures despite operating in vastly different agricultural systems.  

4. Nigeria is testing how governments can build resilience while remaining connected to global markets. 

Nigeria has significant domestic fertilizer blending capacity but continues to import key inputs including phosphate and potash, leaving its agricultural sector exposed to international supply disruptions. “But for next year, I’m afraid we’re going to have some serious issues,” said Senator Abubakar Kyari, Nigeria’s Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, pointing to rising fertilizer costs and supply pressures affecting countries across Africa. Nigeria is responding by expanding irrigation and year-round farming while pursuing measures to reduce the impact of rising fertilizer and seed prices. 

5. Resilience will require more than producing everything at home.

Diversifying suppliers and expanding domestic capacity can reduce exposure to shocks, but the conversation made clear that no country can fully insulate its food system from global markets. “We need to strengthen our trade relationships. We need to build international coordination on food and fertilizer security,” said Pryor. Investment in agricultural research, new technologies and stronger international partnerships will all be necessary to build a more stable and resilient food system.