2024 Meridian Summit: The State of Geopolitics
The next U.S. administration will face pivotal choices as it navigates intensified international competition, safeguarding strategic interests while adapting to rapid geopolitical shifts. In an urgent and thought-provoking conversation, Jane Harman, Chair of the U.S. Commission on the National Defense Strategy and Fred Hochberg, Meridian International Center Board Chair examined the escalating geopolitical tensions that the United States must navigate. As global powers like China and Russia assert their influence, and Iran inches closer to nuclear capability, the U.S. faces the dual challenge of managing external threats while contending with domestic polarization and waning public engagement in foreign policy. Shifting global power structures and emerging thread necessitate a swift recalibration of U.S. strategy to safeguard national and international security.
Key Takeaways
The U.S. faces significant challenges in managing the strategic rivalry with China, particularly as tensions rise over territorial claims in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the influence of BRICS nations. “How many of the American people can find Taiwan on a map?” Harman asked, a question that pointed to the troubling disconnection between American citizens and crucial global issues. Despite the widespread unawareness, Harman warned that China’s ambitions to annex Taiwan could destabilize the region and embolden other authoritarian power. As Beijing’s strategic objectives grow clearer, the U.S. must prepare for scenarios in which regional security dynamics—particularly around Taiwan—may evolve rapidly, compelling a unified, vigilant response to uphold stability in the Indo-Pacific. Harman draws a stark parallel between Russia’s actions and the potential for China to act similarly in Taiwan. Allowing these aggressions to go unchecked would undermine the global order and invite further territorial expansion by rogue nations. The situation is further complicated by the technological interdependence the U.S. shares with Taiwan, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing, making the island’s security not only a matter of geopolitical strategy but of economic survival.
The looming nuclear threat posed by Iran, which is approaching nuclear breakout capacity, holds grave implications, particularly for the Middle East where countries like Saudi Arabia could trigger an arms race by acquiring nuclear weapons of their own. This scenario, Harman noted, would destabilize the region even further and could have catastrophic consequences for global security. As the conversation turned to the broader geopolitical landscape, Harman also emphasized the impact of climate change and migration, both of which are contributing to instability in Europe and beyond. Political and climate refugees are flooding borders, seeking refuge from conditions exacerbated by conflict, while the political will to address these issues is increasingly absent. In addressing these complex challenges, Harman made a compelling case that the U.S. needs to reclaim its leadership role and put its values of democracy, freedom, and human rights back at the forefront of its foreign policy.
Domestically, there’s growing urgency to address polarization that impedes effective U.S. leadership globally, leaving allies exposed and limiting robust responses to international crises. Congressional gridlock was a major reason Harman left Congress in 2011, citing, “solving problems for the country is no longer the business model of Congress. It is blaming the other side for not solving problems, and that's appalling.” The Russian invasion of Ukraine and politicization of aid is a prime example. This freeze has left the U.S. vulnerable in supporting its alliances abroad and standing as a steady bulwark in the face of authoritarianism, while new axis between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran is poised to take advantage.
Next Steps
The U.S. must adopt an all-encompassing approach to these threats, extending beyond traditional government-to-government diplomacy to fields like science, technology, and the arts. “We need a whole of world approach to the threats against the United States” Harman underscored. This "open diplomacy" approach broadens influence through collaboration across diverse fields—from laboratories and boardrooms to cultural platforms and even space exploration. This evolving diplomatic scope aims to rally unified national values, engaging individuals globally to bolster resilience amid global uncertainties.
Whether it is China, Russia, The Middle East, U.S. polarization, or other destabilizing forces, the U.S. faces an onslaught of global challenges that will define the next century. The next administration faces a century-defining challenge, needing not only readiness but a renewed commitment to diplomatic engagement and domestic unity to navigate an unprecedented global landscape. The call to action is clear: while the challenges ahead are immense, the time to act is now, and it will take a collective effort from leaders and citizens alike to prevent a future that will leave the next generation with even greater problems to solve.
Project summary
| 2024 Meridian Summit: The State of Geopolitics | October 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Impact Areas: | Foreign Policy |
| Program Areas: | Diplomatic Engagement |
