2024 Meridian Summit: The Global Swing States: Volatility and Conflict

In today’s geopolitical landscape, heightened tensions between major powers and the rising influence of non-state actors create a complex and volatile environment. In conversation with CNN's Jim Sciutto, Jon Finer, Principal Deputy National Security Advisor for the Biden Administration revealed the U.S. government’s efforts to navigate these turbulent geopolitical waters while ensuring the continued stability of its foreign engagements. With growing global uncertainty, Finer emphasized the importance of strengthening alliances, deterring authoritarian aggression, and building resilience in partner nations.  

Key Takeaways 

A year on since the terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel, what has been a long-feared wider war in the Middle East is now dangerously closer than ever, if not already here. The conflict has noticeably escalated with Iran’s direct involvement after its second missile attack on Israel in the last six months, and Israel’s intensification of the conflict with Hezbollah following a shift in its focus from Gaza to a ground invasion of Southern Lebanon. Israel has successfully assassinated Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah, the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah respectively. Despite this tactical achievement, however, a de-escalation in the conflict seems unlikely anytime soon, with the U.S. seeing itself being dragged further into managing the outbreak of a wider war in the region. The attention now falls on how Israel will respond to the rising tension in the region, and the extent to which the U.S. can influence how Israel decides to respond.  

Over 2,000 miles away from Gaza is another major site of a pressing geopolitical crisis. Nearly three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and following Ukraine’s advancements in Russia’s Kursk, President Zelensky has begun sharing his five-point victory plan with his American and European allies. The plan includes an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO as well as getting permission to use long-range weapons into Russian territory. The elephant in the room, however, is the result of the U.S. elections on November 5th, whose outcome may significantly impact the course of this war. That being said, the Biden Administration is fully focused on utilizing the time they have left in office “to put Ukraine in the strongest position possible on the battlefield before we hand off… to whoever we hand off to”.  

While the Middle East and Ukraine are arguably the two geopolitical hotspots that attract a lot of the world’s attention, China’s growing influence and aggression in the East and South China seas remains a key issue of concern for the White House. Addressing the challenge posed by China remains “one of the fundamental tenets of this Administration’s foreign policy” through “strengthening alliance relationships in the Indo-Pacific and upgrading [U.S.] partnerships with all ASEAN countries,” particularly Vietnam, which has become a more critical partner as it navigates its own geopolitical challenges. Strengthening these alliances, Finer argued, ensures that the U.S. and its allies remain well-positioned to deter Chinese influence and prevent territorial expansion. "Our approach to all of this starts by strengthening those relationships, improving overall deterrence, and making sure these partners can stand on their own two feet with our support," he said, outlining a strategy built on collaboration and long-term partnerships.  

Next Steps  

When we look across the globe through all these new crises and wars that have emerged in the last few years it is easy to feel despair at what seems to be an increasingly unstable international world order. And while there clearly remains a lot more work to be done, Finer’s reflections on these global challenges offer clear action items for policymakers and international leaders, underscoring that “the U.S. is in a much stronger position to lead than it was before.” First, the U.S. and its allies must continue to solidify support for Israel and Ukraine, ensuring that both have the means to protect sovereignty. Second, efforts to strengthen alliances, especially in the Indo-Pacific, need to remain a top priority. The U.S. must deepen its engagement with regional powers like the Philippines and Vietnam to create a united front against Chinese expansionism. By building on these pillars of resilience, cooperation, and strategic foresight, the U.S. and its partners can ensure that they are prepared for the challenges that lie ahead.

Project summary

2024 Meridian Summit: The Global Swing States: Volatility and Conflict | October 2024
Impact Areas:	Foreign Policy, Security and Defense
Program Areas:	Diplomatic Engagement