America in Transition: Navigating Leadership Changes and the Trump Administration Handoff

From left to right: Doug Palmer (POLITICO); Kate Kalutkiewicz (McLarty Associates); Lisa Curtis (Center for a New American Security); Stuart Holliday (Meridian International Center); Kelly Ann Shaw (Hogan Lovells); Glenn Nye III (Center for the Presidency & Congress). “America in Transition: Navigating Leadership Changes and the Trump Administration Handoff” held at Meridian House in Washington, DC on December 11, 2024. Photo by Oskar Dap.

As we approach the half-way mark of the Presidential transition period, and as President Donald Trump announces key cabinet nominations and government appointments ahead of the transfer of power, Meridian convened a program on December 11, 2024, to analyze the presidential handoff and forecast the incoming administration’s top policy priorities. The program featured Ambassador Stuart Holliday, CEO of Meridian International Center; T.H. Glenn Nye, President and CEO of the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress; T.H. Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security; T.H. Kate Kalutkiewicz, Senior Managing Director at McLarty Associates; T.H. Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner and Co-Chair of the Geopolitical Risk and National Security Practice at Hogan Lovells; and Doug Palmer, Senior Trade Reporter at POLITICO.

Here Are Some Top Takeaways from the Program

1. The Trump Administration is Moving Fast 

Learning from their experiences in 2016, the Trump campaign appears to have hit the ground running this transition period. President Trump has made key personnel appointments in quick succession, even naming his first Ambassadorial nominations to such posts as Beijing, Athens and Paris. These actions showcase that his team has done their homework and have entered the transition period prepared. This expedited approach should result in new Ambassadors arriving at their posts in a timelier fashion than eight years ago. As politically appointed ambassadors follow procedure and announce their impending resignations, how smoothly relations proceed before the arrival of new envoys will depend on the strengths of Deputy Chiefs of Missions at U.S. embassies around the world.  

2. Expect Executive Actions on Trump’s Top Priorities  

As our speakers stressed, if you want policies that are enduring, go through Congress, but if you want something done quickly, you go through executive order. President Trump is expected to rely heavily on executive actions, especially in immediately addressing some of his top policy priorities such as immigration and trade. As both immigration and trade as areas where the President has constitutional authority, it will be very unlikely for Congress to put up a lot of friction regarding these policy areas, at least in the near term.  

3. Getting Tough on China 

President Trump’s intention to nominate Senator Marco Rubio to the State Department and Rep. Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor indicate a strong-on-China posture. The incoming administration appears increasingly skeptical China will make significant change, especially regarding what it views as unfair trade practices and subsidies. While trade is expected be the definitive bilateral issue in the near term, experts predict that the United States will continue to cooperate with international partners in the Indo-Pacific. During President Trump’s first term, the Quad—comprising India, Australia, Japan, and the United States—was revived to help preserve regional order, reflecting a rare embrace of multilateralism by his administration. The Trump administration’s 2021 United State Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific is expected to guide the incoming Administration’s approach to this key global region.   

4. The American Voters Demand Tariffs 

Trump’s first administration reinvigorated the conversation surrounding the role and purpose of tariffs in American policymaking. By 2024, President Trump’s pro-tariff agenda resonated with voters, with 56% supporting his tariff proposal. President Trump and his supporters argue that it is fundamentally unfair that the United States has one of the lowest tariff rates in the world, with an average effective tariff rate of 2.7% in 2023. Meanwhile, America’s trading partners such as India, Brazil, and South Korea have rates in the double digits. These disparities fuel economic discontent domestically, with both the American public and bipartisan leadership increasingly comfortable with the idea that changes are needed for America’s trade and tariffs policy.

5. For President Trump, Tariffs are Not Just an Economic Instrument

President Trump has made it clear that he views tariffs as an instrument of policymaking, and he is unafraid to wield them. From announcing plans to leverage tariffs on Mexico to influence immigration policy, to frequently tweeting about trade deficits and tariffs ahead of important bilateral meetings during his first term, it is evident that Trump sees the threat of tariffs as a powerful leverage and a negotiation tactic. As such, it is important for U.S. partners and allies not to let their entire bilateral relationship suffer even if tariffs are imposed. Speakers stressed the importance of continuing to collaborate with American interlocuters across various domains—diplomatic, business, scientific, academic and more—to ensure that a trade dispute does not cast a shadow over the broader bilateral partnership.

Project summary

America in Transition: Navigating Leadership Changes and the Trump Administration Handoff | December 2024
Impact Areas: Foreign Policy
Program Areas: Diplomatic Engagement
From left to right: Doug Palmer (POLITICO); Kelly Ann Shaw (Hogan Lovells); Lisa Curtis (Center for a New American Security); Kate Kalutkiewicz (McLarty Associates) at “America in Transition: Navigating Leadership Changes and the Trump Administration Handoff” held at Meridian House in Washington, DC on December 11, 2024. Photo by Oskar Dap.