After the Vote: America’s 2024 Election Debrief

Following a long and contentious campaign season, the American electorate cast their votes and elected President Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States. A Republican majority also won in the Senate and is expected in the House of Representatives.  

As the electoral dust settled in the days following the election, Meridian convened a bipartisan panel of political experts and Washington insiders to break down Tuesday’s results, what the outcomes tells us about the American people, and what to expect from the forthcoming Trump Administration.

Featured speakers included: 

• T.H. Rodney Davis, Head of Government Affairs, U.S. Chamber of Commerce 

• T.H. Terry McAuliffe, 72nd Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia  

• Susan Page, Washington Bureau Chief, USA TODAY 

• Anna Palmer, Founder and CEO, Punchbowl News 

Natalie Jones, Executive Vice President, Meridian International Center delivered introductory remarks. 

Here are some top takeaways from the program

1. The Economy Dominated Voters’ Concerns

While inflation currently stands at 2.4%, well below the historical average and not far off the US Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, the higher prices that inflation brought over the course of recent years have left a negative impact on voter’s minds and pocketbooks. According to Gallup, 52% of Americans said they were worse off than four years ago, when President Joe Biden took office, versus just 39% who said their financial situation had improved. Voters who identified the economy as their primary concern voted overwhelmingly for Trump over Harris - 79% to 20% nationwide, according to national exit polling data from Edison Research. 

“The Democrats were not addressing the key core issue” explained Rodney Davis, the former five term Republican Congressman from Illinois and now director of Government Affairs at the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington, DC. This argument was echoed by the former Democratic Governor of Virginia Terry McAuliffe, who said, “We should have been talking about grocery prices every single day… When people at home are not feeling great, their grocery bill is up, their rent bills are up, they don't want to hear about democracy.” Regardless of how the US economy is performing empirically, Tuesday’s results made it apparent that voter's perception of the US economy was negative, and they expressed that negative approval by voting against the incumbent political party. Against this backdrop of economic frustration, other electoral messaging simply fell flat.  

2. The American People Wanted Change

While change is not a new rallying cry for American political campaigns, it appears that in recent political cycles, the American people’s desire for it is insatiable. For the first time since the second election of President Grover Cleveland at the end of the 19th century, the American people have voted to change the party that occupies the White House in three successive elections. Notably, Cleveland was also the only President to hold non-consecutive Presidential terms, a designation that President Trump will now share. Voters’ rejection of the incumbent party mirrors a larger global trend of anti-incumbency sentiment in developed democracies, visible in races around the world in a year when over half of the world’s population has participated in electoral contests. From Asia, where the South Korean parliamentary opposition won in a landslide, to Europe where the Tories were voted out in the United Kingdom, voters swung strongly against incumbents. Amidst this general discontent, President Trump’s campaign was propelled to victory with a message grounded in nostalgia and promising renewed economic prosperity. 

3. The Rules of Campaigning Have Permanently Changed

“Money isn't everything.” That was the biggest takeaway of the Congressional elections for Anna Palmer, Cofounder and CEO of Punchbowl who has covered Capitol Hill for over 15 years. During the last election cycle, “Democrats dominated in a way that was unheard of,” according to Palmer. She pointed out that “they outspent Republicans in the month leading up to election day in every single race.” That fundraising dominance, however, did not translate to an electoral victory. This was something Governor McAuliffe also stressed, pointing out that Vice President Kamala Harris raised $1.3 billion in 100 days, which was double any presidential campaign in the history of the United States. “I think it gave a lot of people a lot of false hope. We talked about the great field operation that we had. Forget all that. It didn't matter. It's personality. Donald Trump has a big personality and that drives presidential elections,” declared Gov. McAuliffe. What 2024 illustrated is that the traditional pillars of national campaigning: a robust field operation as well as audience tested messaging and ads saturating the airwaves, were no longer the definitive keys to success. President Trump showcased that a bold message and a mobilized electorate can translate to an electoral win, even with fewer funds and a less robust campaign ground game in battleground states.  

4. This Will Not Be the Same Trump Administration  

During President Trump’s acceptance speech, he said that he will govern by a simple motto: promises made, promises kept. As our panelists stressed, everyone should take President Trump, and his statements, at face value. “Now, Trump knows the levers of power and how to use an administration” explained Palmer, adding, that we’re unlikely to see the Rex Tillerson's of the world in President Trump’s cabinet, but rather, “You're going see sycophants and people that are ideologically very, very similar to him that want to get his job done.” The Republican Party will also be different relative to President Trump’s first term. “Members of Congress in the Senate and the House are much more in line with the Trump view of the world. They're Trump Republicans. The Republican Party is not separate from Trump anymore, it is the exact same thing” noted Palmer. Equally important, the Republican party will be in control of the House and Senate. This unified government will allow President Trump to accomplish much more policymaking, but with such a slim House majority, Palmer warned that deficit hawks and agitators within the Republican conference can disturb legislative proceedings.  Our panelists agreed that it’s easy to be unified in the minority, but when you’re in the majority, divisions can come to the surface more readily. It was also noted that last Congress, Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies saved the Republicans on a number of tough votes including suspending the debt limit through January 2025. In the forthcoming Congress, our panelists argued, there will be no desire on the behalf of Democrats to support Republican votes.  

5. To Understand America, Go Beyond the Capital 

With polls before the election showing a razor thin race and divided electorate, both Vice President Harris and President Trump had a path to the White House, and the electoral results should not have come as a major shock to anyone. Rep. Davis advocated that anyone surprised by the results, or seeking to better understand Donald Trump and his electorate, should travel outside Washington, DC to visit other parts of America and engage directly with the American voters. Getting out beyond the nation’s capital will provide more insights about why President Trump’s message resonated with the majority of the American electorate, as President Trump won not just the Electoral College vote, but the popular vote as well, explained Davis. Governor McAuliffe noted the great value for ambassadors to engage directly with governors and state administrations across the country to bolster economic and trade ties. “You have a real opportunity economically to create jobs in your country and also to help facilitate jobs in our country,” explained McAuliffe in his pitch to the assembled diplomats. Direct engagement with the American people, and subnational actors, in addition to cultivating strong ties with the incoming Administration, are sure ways to help strengthen a country’s ties with America, and America’s with the world.

This program was made possible with support from

Project summary

After the Vote: America’s 2024 Election Debrief | November 2024
Impact Areas:	Governance and Transparency
Program Areas:	Diplomatic Engagement